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“Une autre tuile qui tombe sur la tête” (another tile falling on one’s head) is a French expression signalling yet another setback to an already bad situation. That could certainly be applied to Premier François Legault, who seems to be at a point — halfway through his second mandate — where whatever he does or says provokes another bonk on the head.
There are moments in politics when a leader is in such a rut, they swing for the fences in a bid to change the public conversation. This often makes things even worse. And when they’re down, it’s easy for the opposition or the media to portray in an embarrassing light whatever they say on any controversial issue.
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A case in point for Legault currently is the complicated question of newcomers. During his visit to Paris last week, he provoked shock waves at home by suggesting the federal government should force half the asylum seekers in Quebec to be transferred elsewhere, including would-be refugees who have already settled in the province.
Regular immigrants to Canada must apply for permanent residency, a lengthy process with applications favouring “people with abilities, education and work experience that will contribute to the Canadian economy.” An asylum seeker is someone who crosses into Canada and claims to be a refugee but whose status hasn’t yet been evaluated. Legault is not wrong to identify concerns and challenges in integrating an explosion of these entrants — disproportionately in Quebec — over the last few years, in having to provide housing, teachers, health care and so on. He is understandably frustrated with an issue of genuine concern and federal responsibility.
However, whether his remarks evoking forced relocation were meant as a desperate attempt to shake Ottawa into action, or a dog whistle to populist sentiment about the high number of newcomers, his words blew up in his face and he was attacked from all sides. His musings about “waiting zones” for asylum seekers were also slammed, even though these have existed for decades in France.
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At the end of 2023, Legault — reeling from several missteps — lamented what a bad year it had been. The millions paid to the L.A. Kings for two exhibition games in Quebec City, for example, and the brazen flip-flops on the third-link tunnel project between Quebec City and Lévis led to a consequential byelection loss to the Parti Québécois in October — and the start of his drop in the polls.
Legault said he looked forward to 2024, but this year has gone from bad to worse on bigger issues. Other than the contentious asylum seeker quagmire, his government posted the largest budget deficit in Quebec history. There have been serious problems related to his big gamble in the EV battery industry — investing heavily in the Northvolt plant while the company now faces financial troubles. And he lost a key pillar in the cabinet, economy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon.
Is there any possibility for Legault to rebound, or will this tendency just congeal as we move forward? A Léger Poll this week contains some answers — both good and bad news for the premier, depending on how you look at it.
On the one hand, the poll confirms most Quebecers want change. They’re still parking their vote with the PQ and their fresh-faced leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, for now. It also reveals, surprisingly, that the provincial Liberals — which had been left for dead — could jump into the lead if MP Pablo Rodriguez becomes their new leader.
This dramatic Liberal shift, however, is another reminder about how extremely fickle Quebec voters can be. With an election still two years away, Legault may hope the pendulum can ultimately swing back, especially if the economy starts improving.
But he must first make sure the tiles stop falling.
Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election. X @robertlibman
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