Robert Libman: Trudeau has reason to be worried about Trump's win

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Last month, a Léger poll found that if Canadians could vote in the U.S. election, 64 per cent would have voted for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, while only 21 per cent would have supported Republican Donald Trump. Sixty-two per cent of Canadians believed that a Harris victory would be the best outcome for Canada.

After Trump’s surprisingly decisive victory this week, many north of the border are asking how this could have happened, among other questions. How will Canada be affected? What parallels are there with the political dynamic here, as we go to the polls next year? How will Prime Minister Justin Trudeau get along with Trump this time?

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Despite all the controversy and turbulence associated with Trump — the charges and allegations (whether justified, or the result of Democratic officials weaponizing the court system); his unconventional ugly rhetoric; his inability to coherently articulate policy — he still prevailed. Harris clearly appeared more intelligent than Trump in their debate, but it didn’t matter. It is evident that incumbency is a political noose right now.

Joe Biden, who was forced out, likely would have been defeated even more soundly. Instead of opening the nomination to “arm’s-length” contenders, the Democrats’ haste in choosing Harris — clearly associated with the Biden years — was naively blind-spotted. Many voters, out of frustration with almost anything, particularly the economy, want to stick it to those in office. All Trump had to do was say he would fix things and make America great again without tangibly defining how.

Canada is not the U.S. when it comes to nasty, but there are obvious parallels here. Trudeau’s main rival, Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, has been hammering away with rhetoric that is also rife with putdowns and slogans. Although many Canadians may recoil at his personality, it hasn’t hampered his success in the polls. Not being the guy in power is enough to win these days.

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Now elected, however, Trump will soon have his hands full in addressing the numerous epic promises he’s made — how he’ll make America great again, end the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and so on. 

What about Canada? Trump pledged he would slap a 10 per cent tariff on all imports entering the States, patriotically stumping to his voters that they come first — why buy from elsewhere when we should be stimulating our economy and jobs by producing those goods in America? With the U.S. as Canada’s biggest trade partner, this could cost our country dearly. Another concern is Trump’s promise to launch a massive deportation of immigrants, which could lead to a major increase in irregular border crossings into Canada.

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It can only be hoped that with all his grandiose challenges, some of the campaign bluster and election rhetoric will yield to realism and common sense will prevail. For example, the way in which our two economies and supply chains are already intertwined, using tariffs to discourage affordably available goods from Canada could inevitably result in higher prices for U.S. consumers.

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But it will take finesse and understanding from our leadership to deal with Trump and these issues. As so much is about his ego and flattery, they will have to play the game, big time, to ingratiate themselves. For Trudeau, that could be another hurdle, as he has some fences to mend. 

During a 2019 event at Buckingham Palace, Trudeau was caught on camera seeming to joke about Trump with other world leaders. This led to Trump calling him “two-faced.” In 2022, Trump called Trudeau a “far-left lunatic” in reference to the Freedom Convoy and vaccine mandates. Ouch.

Many Canadians may have concerns about the U.S. election results, but for Trudeau, it was bad news in more ways than one.

Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election. 

x.com/robertlibman

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